SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:US Rep. Lauren Boebert will find out whether switching races worked in Colorado

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DENVER (AP) — Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert will soon find out whether her political gamble,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center abruptly switching congressional districts in Colorado mid-election, will cost the GOP or reinforce its position in the U.S. House.

Boebert, a far-right standard-bearer whose following reaches far beyond Colorado, won by only 546 votes in 2022. Facing a rematch against the same, well-funded Democrat in 2024, and suffering a scandal where she was caught on tape vaping and causing a disturbance with a date in a Denver theater, Boebert left the race.

As an outspoken patron of presidential candidate Donald Trump, Boebert said Democrats were targeting her. Her exodus, she said, would better help Republicans retain the seat.

Boebert then joined the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, a more conservative area of the Great Plains, arguing that her voice is still needed in Congress.

The packed and dramatic Republican primary was the biggest hurdle. Boebert maneuvered around a major political threat, weathered accusations of carpetbagging and tended the bruise of getting booted from the Denver theater. With a near household name and an endorsement from Trump, she pulled through the Republican field.

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Boebert is now expected to win against Democrat Trisha Calvarese in the district that supported Trump by nearly 20 percentage points in 2020.

Some questions, however, remain as to whether Boebert’s withdrawal from her old district was enough for Republicans to hold onto the seat. The Democratic candidate, Adam Frisch, had already pulled in an astounding number of donations for a non-incumbent before Boebert departed, fundraising off of his near success in beating her in 2022.

The thrust of Frisch’s campaign was to “stop the circus,” dubbing Boebert’s style “angertainment.” Without the congresswoman as political foil, Frisch has fallen back onto his politically moderate platform, emphasizing that he will be a voice for rural constituents and take a bipartisan approach to policy.

Frisch, a former Aspen councilman and currency trader, still has one of the largest House campaign chests in the country. It far overshadows GOP candidate Jeff Hurd’s coffers.

It’s unclear how much that will make a difference. The district still leans red, and Hurd, an attorney, is a more temperate conservative than his predecessor, with fewer gaffs. Hurd has said his goal is to make local headlines instead of national ones. The baggage free “R” next to his name on the ballot might be all that’s needed.

With an expected victory in her new district, Boebert will be filling a seat vacated by former Rep. Ken Buck. The congressman resigned, citing a flank of the Republican Party’s hardheaded politics and unwavering devotion to Trump — the traits that made Boebert a name brand.

In a recording of Buck at a private event initially reported by Politico, the former congressman said “she makes George Santos look like a saint.” Santos was expelled from Congress last year. To some, Buck’s replacement is another sign of a Republican Party increasingly falling behind Trump.

Boebert has portrayed her intractable politics — stonewalling the vote to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy as House speaker for a series of concessions — as promises kept on the campaign trail.

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Bedayn is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.