PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:USMNT avoids stunning Concacaf Nations League elimination with late goal vs. Jamaica

The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank CenterU.S. men’s national soccer team, by the skin of its teeth, is back in the Concacaf Nations League final.

It looked like the heavily favored Americans were set for a stunning elimination after conceding just 31 seconds in against Jamaica, then failing to score over the next 95 minutes. But an incredibly dramatic and fortuitous own goal with the last kick of the game saved the USMNT from elimination.

In extra time of the semifinal, Gio Reyna and Haji Wright took over the game as the former assisted not one, but two goals for the latter in an eventual 3-1 victory.

In a half-empty AT&T Stadium that only started filling up as Mexico’s game against Panama approached, the USMNT needed every bit of its grit, quality and yes, luck to advance past a depleted Reggae Boyz side that left everything on the field.

Here are three thoughts on a wild night in Texas.

USMNT falls asleep early

The U.S. wouldn’t have expected much of an attacking threat from a Jamaica side missing the likes of Michail Antonio and Leon Bailey, but they obviously really didn’t expect that threat in the first 30 seconds.

But that’s exactly what happened on a Jamaica opener that featured several USMNT players looking like their heads were still in pre-game warm-ups.

Antonee Robinson didn’t deal with a simple bouncing ball and Joe Scally was completely napping at the back post as Greg Leigh stole in behind him to head home. You could also ask a question of Matt Turner, who stayed on his line and failed to deal with a header – powerful and close as it was – that was straight at him.

It was exactly the start a team like Jamaica, which was always likely to play defensively, would have wanted.

This is why we obsess over Gio Reyna

Gio Reyna played far more minutes on Thursday (75) than he has his entire time at Nottingham Forest (39).

But amid an increasingly nightmarish loan spell, Reyna came in off the bench at halftime and showed again why there continues to be so much hype around him.

Reyna controlled the tempo of the match from midfield, instantly making the USMNT more formidable upon his entry. In the extra period, his quality made the difference on two inch-perfect through balls for Haji Wright.

A word for Wright too, who only made this roster as an injury replacement and delivered a signature performance in a big moment.

Pressure on Gregg Berhalter despite win

The second Gregg Berhalter era was nearing a crisis before Jamaica’s late own goal.

A home loss to a Reggae Boyz team missing no less than seven key players would have led to some real questions over the viability of Berhalter’s project. Though the U.S. saw its quality finally make the difference in extra time, that shouldn’t completely paper over a performance over 95 minutes that was severely lacking.

The USMNT has underwhelmed since Berhalter took over after last summer’s Gold Cup, defeating overmatched opponents like Oman and Uzbekistan while underwhelming in defeats against Germany and Trinidad and Tobago.

The pressure is on Berhalter ahead of Sunday’s final to lead the USMNT to an improved performance — and another trophy.